Shoving with the nuts

Doherty and I have spent some time recently thinking about how to play the nuts. Specifically, we've been talking about situations where making huge overbets with the nuts are profitable plays. Before we get into that, a little background:

Usually, when someone moves all-in by significantly overbetting the pot, particularly with cards still to come in a heads-up pot, that's a sign of weakness in anything but an all-out beginners game. Not total weakness, but certainly much less strength than the size of the bet tends to indicate.

Example: You have AdKs, late position. One player limps up front and you make a standard raise of about 4 times the big blind. Everyone folds back to the limper, who calls. The flop comes:

Kc 7c 2d

Your opponent checks to you, and you bet 3/4 of the pot. He comes over the top all-in for about 4 times the size of the current pot. What is his most likely hand?

It almost has to be the nut flush draw, AcXc. He's hoping to win the pot right here, but is willing to fall back on what may be as 12 outs (9 clubs and 3 Aces). If he has the Ac2c, all the more so.

Why is this the case? Well, it's actually quite simple. If he truly had a great hand - say, a set of 7's - why on earth is he betting so much? Shouldn't he either A) just flat call your bet, or B) make a check-raise of about 2/3 of the pot, giving you some irrisistable 3-to-1 odds if you have AK, as you do, or C) bet out on the flop instead of checkraising, to limit your interpretation of his strength.

Big overbets on the flop just scream "I have a pretty darn good draw" to intermediate players and better. A standard raise - with the threat of a big bet on the turn - is much scarier than someone racing to get 4 times the pot in on the flop.

Example 2: You have JJ under the gun and make a standard raise to 4 times the big blind. You get one call from the small blind. The flop comes:

7s 6h 4h

He checks, and you bet 4/5 of the pot. He calls. The turn is the scary 5d. He checks and you check. The river is the 10c, making the board:

7s 6h 4h 5d 10c

The small blind goes all-in for twice the pot. What do you do?

It's a tough situation, since he might have been looking to check-raise the turn with a straight, but i doubt it. This is a massive overbet for someone who, in theory, is trying to get paid off. Especially when we have shown little aggression since the flop, which could have been a standard continuation bet. It's much more likely that the small blind is bluff here, maybe with the nut flush draw that didn't hit. It's unlikely he has a medium strength hand, because he'd probably like to just show those down as cheap as possible. So he likely either has the straight or has next to nothing. If you have enough chips that this won't devastate you to call, I vote for a call.

Anyway, Doherty and I have been discussing situations where this relatively common line of reasoning can be turned against intermediate or better players. A situation came up the other night in New Haven that I thought illustrated it well:

Blinds were 50/100 and Jason came in for a raise to 300, which I called from late position, holding 10h9h (Leave aside the questionable nature of that call). The flop came:

Ah 7h 3h

Jason bet 450 into the 750 pot. I had 2400 behind, and he had me covered. I saw three options:

1) just calling, and then either bettin the pot or raising all-in on the turn, unless a heart hit.

2) raising to about 1200, hoping Jason would reraise me all in with an AK type hand.

3) shoving right in on the flop.

I picked #2, and Jay mucked his cards instantly, even claiming he had an Ace. This is a situation where I think I would have done a lot better if I shove.

Think about the math: The difference between a shove and a standard raise is only 2:1 in terms of size. So if he'll call a shove even half as often as a normal raise, I make out good.

And the shove screams: "I'm on a big heart draw, but I really want you to go away right now so I can just have this pot."

Don't know if my logic is good here, but it seems to me that overbetting with the nuts (or close to the nuts) might be the highest EV play here.

Anyway, that's one of things I've been thinking about lately: how to use big bets to get more out of lock hands.