So yeah. I'm going to the WSOP. Check here for updates.
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Perspective
Ok. I'm not going to lie to you - i spent much of the last 9 hours thinking about two hands - my bustout hand and the hand I gave away 25k with at 2:30am on Sunday. But I'm definitely on my way to getting over it. The bustout hand is nagging me a bit - I'm starting to think a check-raise all-in on the flop [instead of leading out with a bet] might have won me the pot uncontested (especially given what my opponent actually had). But I'm not complaining - if you offered me a 55/45 coinflip for 21k before the day started, I would have jumped on it in a heartbeat. I was having nightmares last night about not getting anything remotely playable today and dwindling down under 7k before I could do anything. I'm glad that didn't happen.
Ok. So I'm off to the gym, breakfast, and then back to the Rio for Day 2. Can't wait to see Tom and Brian sitting to my left. I'm ready to roast those guys today.
We start at 12pm PST, so my first break this time will be around 5pm eastern time. I'll call Sarah and have her write an update on my progress.
I totally had forgotten about Vanessa Selbst from the Trumbull poker club at Yale. Well, she made a final table earlier at the WSOP for $101,000 and just got a nice write up on Pokerstars blog. Here she is at the final table of Event #6, $2000 No Limit Hold'em:
Here's what she said about Trumbull, when asked whether the poker was better at Yale or MIT:
Definitely Yale. In our home game, we had several great players. Alex Jacob, Ariel Schneller, Nate Mavis. Alex has made a final table this year , and we're all out playing now here in Vegas." [It was actually two final tables plus a 2nd earlier at the Foxwoods WPT event for Alex]
So I'm just chilling in Vegas right now. Actually, I'm doing something really annoying: trying to fininsh my presentation for an upcoming conference. Yes, I'm sitting in my hotel room trying to edit a political science paper. Just shoot me.
[Note: So I'm writing something like a 4-post series recapping Day 1. This is part IV. Part I can be found here. Part II can be found here. Part III can be found here. I'm doing this partially because I know all of you want to read it, partially because I want to get it down on paper before I forget a lot of it, and partially because two of the better players from my table yesterday are going to be at my table on Tuesday, and I want to use this to rethink some of their play. So feel free to skip a lot if it doesn't interest you -mg]
Level 5 was my real moment in the sun. I finally got the payoff for all my loose-agressive play. The level was a total roller coaster, but ultimately a good one. I went from 14k to 23k down to 16k up to 22k down to 18k and then finally up to 32k, where I finished the level. But that's how the loose-agressive style works - you gradually build as you roller coaster up and down. Obviously, I don't play it as well as a lot of people, but I've become pretty adept at.
My good fortune all started with a good hand against young/tight in the 2 seat. I raised preflop with KcJc to 1025 and he called me from the big blind. Flop was Ac 6c 2h, and he checked. I bet 1500 and he called. Turn was the 10c, giving me the nuts. He checked, and I knew he had a big Ace, so I checked it back. River was blank, he bet 2500, I popped it to 7000, and he paid it off. Yesssss!
I then donked off a bunch trying to steal and getting re-popped by Tom, who was really becoming a star in my mind. Chris was also playing insane, and had chipped his way up to something like 45k. Both of them were now more active. Honestly, it seemed like Tom, Chris, and I were the only ones raising at times. Bodog ultra-tight was still hanging around, even though I couldn't remember him playing hand since dinner. But he was down to like 4k. Tobin was also still alive, mostly thanks to Partypoker woman doubling him up early, but he had made some nice moves and probably had 20k or so.
I took KK and worked Tony over in our first confrontation. He raised and I re-raised pre-flop. He then bet out on a rag board and I raised again. This time he gave up. That got me back up to about 23k. I then donked off some more on bad steals and I paid off a couple of hands at showdown with top pair, getting good odds when i knew i was probably beat.
I then scored two big hands in a row near the end of the level. First, I had TT when UB Chick raised my big blind. I repopped it and she called. Flop AKJ. Crap. I checked, and she bet. I decided to test the waters with a check-raise, and she unfortunately called. Turn was a low blank and we went check-check. River was a beautiful Queen. I made a small suck bet that she had to call, and she paid it off with a horribly played AK. That got me up to about 28k.
A few hands later, I had a smooth ride with AK when the board came K J 8 7 7, getting bets in on flop and turn, checking down the river and beating Chris' AQ. That got me up to about 32k.
Then I kinda went card dead, and kinda stopped trying to steal. Tom busted UB chick, who was still on tilt from when I beat I her with that straight. Tom raised, and UB chick pushed for a huge overbet, and Tom called with AA. She had A9. Game over.
Seat 7: (Name: Jackson) A older man from Houston who got in the WSOP through a satellite at his home poker club, the Houston Hold'em League. He had a medium stack (23k or so) but I think he was really tired, becuase he didn't play many hands the rest of the night.
Speaking of tired, it was now almost 1am and we still had a break and one more level to go before calling it a night. Everyone was exaughsted: the dealers, floor people, players. Everyone. On the break, I went and layed down on a bench, because the Pokerstars suite was closed for the night. I resolved to play conservatively in the last level, and stick to premium hands or good stealing opportunities if people were too tired to fight back.
I played so well in this level for 1 hour and 20 minutes, and then I gave away the farm all in one hand against Tom. It was such a disaster. I was really tired when we sat back down to play at 1:17am, but i think most people at my table were more tired. Young/tight in the 2 seat was literally falling asleep between hands. Chris was teasing him by screaming "you're all in!!!" when he would nod off. I resovled to do nothing stupid.
And I didn't. I played small-ball and raised with legit hands and chipped up without a fight to almost 34k 40 minutes into the level. The night could not end soon enough. I was really psyched. Then I sat tight for two rounds and blew off 2k in blinds. I messed around a bit and won a pot and lost a pot. Then, around 2:25am, the key hand happened.
I raised middle position with TT to 1700. Tom reraised me to 4000. Right there, I should have just thrown it away. I was too tired to deal with the analysis necessary to play with Tom in a big pot. But I don't think you can fault a call here. I do have TT. So I called. No big deal, jsut 4000 invested with a good hand. Flop comes 4 4 2. Man, that was no fun. I just knew we were going to get into the same game we played 4 hours earlier when I had QQ and got raised out on the flop. So I decided to check. He bet 4k. Right here I made a crucial mistake. Tom had about 17k left, and I should have folded or minimum check-raised. That way I could have folded if he shoved (or call if I felt it appropriate). Instead I just called. Turn was another 4, changing absolutely nothing. But you can see how poorly I've played this now - I haven't been aggressive at all, so I have no idea if he really has a big pair or if he's just pushing AK or 88 or whatever. If I had just reraised pre-flop, I could have got away from it when he shoved. Same on the flop, probably.
But now there's 16k in the pot, and he's got 17k left and I have 25k or so left. I still can get away from this, but somehow I convince myself that my best course of action on the turn is to bet into him. I'm such a loser. I bet 10k and he shoves for the rest of his chips. With 36k in the pot, I basically have to call the last 7k, and I do. He flips over Aces. Of course he does, idiot. What the heck else is he going to show up there with. I missed on the river, and I was down to like 7.5k.
I was so mad at myself. Literally furious. I'm so lucky that I didn't steam off the rest of my chips. It was just so hard to accept playing so well in level 5 and the first half of level 6, and have that happen. But I pulled it together, stole some blinds, and got myself up to about 12k with 15 minutes to go in the night. Then I just went into my shell, too tired to do anything, and blinded down to 10,400, where I am now.
It was really a sick day. Unbelievable how I started with 10k and ended with 10.4k, after zooming up over 30k twice and all the way back down again both times.
Carl busted with about 20 minutes to go. He had been short stacked for a while after young/tight had sucked out on him with JJ against KK. He then moved all-in for about 3k with AQ, and Brian called him with AK to bust him. I was actually really sad when he busted - he had been very friendly the whole day, and I could tell that he really wanted to make it to Day 2.
He was replaced by a young guy named Dylan, but I really didnt get to know him because he only sat next to me for 10 minutes.
At 3:17am, after 12 hours of poker and 15+ hours of being at the Rio, the time expired on the day, and we had made day 2. We started with 2300 on Day 1B and 840 made it through to Day 2. I was mad at myself about that last confrontation with Tom, but I was actually quite proud to get through Day 1. It really was a war, especially after some of the weak-tighties busted and better players move over.
It took us almost 40 minutes to bag our chips. They pass out bags, you have to sign a card and sign the bag, and then they give you a seat card for Tuesday. Unbelievably, they did a poor job shuffling the seat cards. We got to pick randomly from cards face down on the table, but of the 10 cards on our table, 3 of them went to the same new table and 3 went to the same other new table. In a sick, sick twist of events, I drew Table 142 seat 8. Tom drew 142 seat 9. And Brian drew 142 seat 10. So the two guys on my left all day on Saturday will be on my left when we start on Tuesday. Unbelievable.
The good news is that there aren't any pros at my new table. It's all internet qualifiers and other amatuers. Here's a picture of us baggin up our chips for the night:
And here's a picture of my bag, complete with my short stack 10.4k:
So, what am I going to do now? Well, Sarah just left to fly back to Albany, so I'm alone in Vegas tonight. I just hit the gym, and I'm probably going to go over to the Series for a while tonight and take pictures. I tried to take a lot last night, but between playing and our camera only working half the time, I didn't get much.
But most of all, I'm going to be studying Harrington on Hold'em volume II. The blinds will be 250/500 with a 50 ante when i start on Tuesday. That means each lap costs 1250 chips, and that means I start with an M of just over 8. So I really need to double up quick, and I'll need to get my chips in before I pay the blinds twice, or at worst three times. That's because I need to double to something reasonable, and because I want to have enough that I'm still dangerous to people with medium sized stacks, so maybe I'll win some blinds. Harrington II has very in-depth discussions about the best way to do this, so I'll be reviewing that by the pool tomorrow.
At any rate, I'm realistic about my prospects. I'll try to double my chips early and get something to play with, but I may very well bust out in the first 20 mintues. I'm psyched though to have a chance. If I can catch a double up I'll have some room to manuever, and if I can catch two double-ups, I'll be dangerous again. And so in many ways the pressure is off: if I had 30k or 50k right now, I'd be totally psyched, but nervous as hell. In my current sitaution, there's very little to lose.
But don't worry, I am going to double up on Tuesday.
Check back tomorrow, I'll probably have more photos from both the Series and Vegas.
[Note: So I'm writing something like a 4-post series recapping Day 1. This is part III. Part I can be found here. Part II can be found here. I'm doing this partially because I know all of you want to read it, partially because I want to get it down on paper before I forget a lot of it, and partially because two of the better players from my table yesterday are going to be at my table on Tuesday, and I want to use this to rethink some of their play. So feel free to skip a lot if it doesn't interest you -mg]
Both Level 3 and Level 4 were very frustrating for me. It was four hours (broken up by a 1.5 hour dinner break) in which I came so close so many times to breaking it open and getting a monster stack, but I just couldn't get over the hump. In both levels, I got good hands, good opportunities, and even got some big-time chips a few times, but I couldn't put it togehter.
Level 3 was the most frustrating. I went card dead for over an hour. That wouldn't have been so bad in Level 1 or 2 because I would have stole my way to continued stack growth, but things had now changed: Tom had adjusted to my style (so had Carl, but he was basically inconsequential because he was both on my right and quite conservative), and Brian and mustache were much stronger players than Ray and Angry Duke. Then Trevor busted at the beginning of level 3 and was replaced by a pretty damn good player, Chris.
Seat 6: (Name: Chirs). Real nice guy. Also a pokerstars qualifier (so was Carl). But he was a loose-agressive player who was damn good at reading hands. He had some flaws, and I felt like I could keep him under control. But my days I running the jungle were officially over when he sat down. Between him, Tom, Brian, and mustache, the table was no longer weak-tight.
So, as I said, I was card dead and had less room to steamroll. Even worse, the few hands I got just wouldn't get paid off. I had QQ and got the blinds. Same with KK. I flopped the nut full house from the BB in a four-way unraised pot and got nothing out of it. That almost set me on tilt. I was mixing it up pretty good with Tom, Mustache, and Chris at this point. We all had between 17 and 23k, and we were going at it fiercely. Sometimes it was small-ball, check-down type stuff, and sometimes it was fireworks. Mustache and Chris were just playing sick enormous pots against each other. In fact, mustache only played big pots. He just hammered and hammered. Ultimately it was his downfall. I got a lot of his chips on this hand:
Mustache raises under the gun and I call with AQo. Flop comes A 9 5 rainbow. Mustache checks, and I bet 2/3 of the pot (875 or so), he calls. Turn is a blank and he checks. I check behind, both to try and get him to bluff the river, and to keep myself from getting trapped if he has a set. River pairs the turn blank, and he fires out for 2500, which I insta-call. I show much AQ and he mucks. That was a nice hand, my only memorable hand of level 3, honestly.
I went up and down between 17k and 23k all level.
Doyle busted during level 3. It was really wild, anytime he was all-in, the whole room would stop. We knew about it right away, because we were one table over, but it was amazing how fast the news spread. People would get up from their tables and run over to see him. He finally busted when a guy made a great call with 99 on a board of T T 6 7 and Doyle shoving on the turn. I don't remember what Doyle had.
After he busted, he got a standing ovation that lasted almost 2 minutes. It was really cool. Then he left the room, only to be dragged back by the powers that be for another applause round and a speech. I got a bit of video of his entrance for this, but it's not great footage:
I ended Level 3 with 19,625 and a lot of frustration. I was happy to have so many chips, but I really thought I could be pushing 30 or 35k by now. And with the table getting tougher, it wasn't going to get any easier.
Sarah pulled a great stunt and got a dinner reservation for right before our break, which was from 6:45 to 8:15. We at at Sao Paulo in the Rio, and it was pretty good. Then we took a walk outside and I tried to rest up. We had played 6 hours of poker, and had 6 more to go. I was sitting on a bench outside, and for the first time, the fatigue factor really kicked in.
Level 4 changes everything. Bad players just don't realize what the ante does to the game. When it was 100/200, there was 300 chips in each starting pot ( and it cost 300 chips to play an orbit). At 100/200/25, there are now 550 chips in a starting pot (and 550 to play an orbit.) Consequently, strategy has to change. First, tight players start to get killed. If you loosen up a bit and steal, you get such a bonus. Chris and I were having a field day at one point, basically alternating pre-flop raises and dragging pretty darn big pots. At one point I had like 3 stacks of 30 green 25 chips from winnings so many ante pots on steals.
That's also a tip when you move to a new table: check out who has the low denomination chips. Those people are the really active players at the table. This is especially good observation after the antes kick in.
The second thing people forget is that the antes really affect the pot odds of pre-flop raises. Some of the players who didn't adjust were making standard 3x raises to 600. That's ok without antes, but with 550 already in there, you're giving the big blind almost 2 to 1 on a call. It's much, much preferable to raise to at least 750 or 800. So the antes jack up the stakes.
I got off to a rollicking start in level 4. Picked up 99 in early position, raised, and got reraised by Chris in the big blind. I called, and got a sweet flop: 9 5 2, with two clubs. Chirs bet, and I decided to call. The turn was the Ace of clubs. That's both a good and bad card for me. I was pretty sure Chris was sitting on AK. The clubs were worrying, but what hand would he be reraising with pre-flop that had two clubs but not the Ace? KQ maybe, but only if he thought I was on a steal, and even I wasn't trying to steal from early position.
Anyway, he made a big bet on the turn, something like 2500. I reraised to 7000, and he called. the river was a blank and he check. I debated betting again, but I was too worried that his smooth call on the turn was either the flush or a set of Aces, so I checked behind and showed my set. It was good, and he later told me that he did have AK.
Speaking of which, I can't believe how many people show hands that they don't have to. My rule when playing for serious with strangers is to not show a damn thing. Nothing, if possible. You get the weak-tighties playing no hands, then they raise, everyone folds, and they show off their QQ, like we needed to be reminded that they aren't stealing and that they have good hands. I learned more about the style of play from people yesterday by exploiting free information than I ever thought was going to be possible. Ridiculous behavior.
Anyway, that big pot against Chris got me up to like 29 or 30k, and I was looking great. I lost a few pots here and there and had to fold a few times to re-raises of pre-flop steals. Then I took this video around 9:30, halfway through the level:
You can see UB Chick, Chris, Tom, and Carl in the video. I mention in the video that Carl cracked Aces with Kings, and that was a big moment. Carl had taken some hits, and finally made a pre-flop stand for all his chips. He raised, Brian re-raised, and Carl shove. Brian showed Aces. Flop K 5 3. No help turn or river. I thought it was going to put Brian around the bend. That was twice we saw Aces all-in pre-flop at our table, and twice cracked.
You can hear how happy I am in that video, too. 26k, 9:30pm, playing pretty well, survived 8 hours of poker already. I was psyched. Then disaster struck in the form of Tom. Errily, almost this exact same hand would repeat itself at 2:45am, with an even worse outcome.
I raised preflop with QQ and Tom reraised me. Alarm bells immediately start going off in my head. I call, flop 662. I bet out, hoping Tom was on AK and would give it up. My bet was about 1/2 the pot, maybe 1800 chips. Tom reraised me to 4500. Yikes. Now I'm in a quandry. But I still think I can move him off this hand, unless he has Aces. We both know that neither of us hit the flop, so it's really a game of chicken with what is now obviously our high pairs. So I stick in the 3rd raise, for another 6000. Tom immediately goes all-in.
Now I'm really in a quandry. I have Tom covered, but not by a ton. If I call and lose, I'll be down under 4k, but a call and win will have me well into the mid 40k range. Ultimatley, I decide to bag it, figuring he couldn't possible put the 4th raise in with AK or JJ. I'm still pretty sure I made the right decision, but Tom was coy about it the whole night, even when I was asking him again at 3:50am. It kind of became our running joke. We'd be having a regular conversation, and I'd very casual say, "so what did you have on that hand I layed down to you?" But he never did tell.
Meanwhile, mustache was busted by Chris, and a decent (but not as good as mustache) player replaced him:
Seat 3: (Name: Tony). Seemed like an experienced, tight local. Never gave away any chips in a spew-fest, but never really built a stack either. Just hovered along with about 15k the whole time I played with him. I did play one interesting hand with him in level 5.
A few other notes: it's getting late, and the first sign that everyone is getting tired is that non-funy jokes are now becoming hillarious at the table. It was kind of like when you go on a long car ride through the night, and everything you see makes you laugh. But we still had 4 hours of poker to go, and peoples' play was starting to be affected by tiredness.
Also, a lot of people had now busted. After level 2, only 400 people had busted from a starting field of 2300 for the day. But by the end of 4, we were down to about 1200. During the 4th break, I called Sarah for the last time and then took a nap in the Pokerstars suite. I was down to 14,625 chips, but I still felt ok, although I was very frustrated.
[Note: So I'm writing something like a 4-post series recapping Day 1. This is part II. Part I can be found here. I'm doing this partially because I know all of you want to read it, partially because I want to get it down on paper before I forget a lot of it, and partially because two of the better players from my table yesterday are going to be at my table on Tuesday, and I want to use this to rethink some of their play. So feel free to skip a lot if it doesn't interest you -mg]
I started off on Level 2 right where I left off during Level 1, stealing like crazy because no one wanted to contest any pots. I'd say 90% of pots on Day 1 didn't make it to showdown, and I bet 70% didn't make it to a flop. Ripe pickings for people willing to steal. And the gap was huge: if you just raised when it folded to you, the tight players weren't going to play back without pairs or big Aces. So it was easy. I quickly chipped up to about 14.5k, and I was feeling great.
Then, disaster struck. First it was bad luck, and then it was a terrible play by me.
Hand #1: Ray raised in early position to 300. Folded to me on the button, and I called with 77. Flop was beautiful J 7 3 rainbow. Ray came out firing for 650. I thought for about 40 seconds and raised to 1500, trying to price him in. Amazingly, he came over the top all-in for 3500 more. Since I had him well covered, there wasn't any debate. If he had JJ so be it. I insta-called and he turned over QQ, leaving him with two outs for an 11k pot. Turn was a queen. Ugggh. Really devastating. Thank god I had him outchipped. That knocked me down to around 8k.
Hand #2: This came up maybe 15 minutes later. It set a pattern for the day in which I would play medium pairs (6s through 10s) very poorly. I had TT early position, raised, and got called by Angry Duke. Flop was something like 8 7 3 and I bet, he called. Turn was 4 and it went check-check. I have no idea why i didn't bet it. So stupid. River was an Ace, and I check-called a bet that was 2/3 the size of the pot. He had AK. And I could have easily shut him out on the turn. It was just dumb.
This put me down to about 6k. I then misplayed 88 badly. It was exactly like hand #2 above, only worse. Against Ray, on a board of 6 7 2 9 after the turn, I checked with my 88 (?!?!?) after having bet the flop and gotten called. River was a king, and I check-called a bet and he showed me KQ. Ughhh. What a brain-fart on the turn. Outrageously bad play.
I was down to 3400 chips, my low point of the day, and I was miserable. I had everything going for me: I had a great table, I had been playing well, and I just made some stupid errors. Then came what I think was the key hand of the day, and perhaps the most memorable tournament hand I will ever play in my life:
I've chipped up to about 4400 via steals and legit uncalled raises. I then pick up JJ in early position. I raise to 325, and both Tobin and Trevor call. This is remarkable. These guys are really tight. I put them both on medium pairs or AK. Flop comes 944 rainbow. I bet 800, Tobin folds, and Trevor puts me in for my remaining chips, about 3100. I call for time, and I literally take about 4 minutes thinking through the decision.
It's odd when you're at the WSOP and you have a potential call for all your chips. I've never experienced that level of tension playing poker. It was awful. First thing I did was look down at a litte note card I had behind my chips. It was a quote from Harrington's book: When you are faced with a big decision, you owe it to yourself to at least take the time to think the whole thing through. So I did. Here's what I thought:
Ok. Trevor is a straightforward, tight player. The hands he could have that beat me are: AA, KK, QQ, 99, 44, 94, and any random 4. We can eliminate random 4, because Trevor is way too tight to be calling pre-flop raises with A4s, 54s, etc. Same goes for 94. No way he has quad fours, he probably wouldn't have called pre-flop, and he definitely would have slowplayed the flop to trap me. Ditto with nines-full: why would he make such a huge raise on the flop with the nut full house? Wouldn't he try to trap me by just calling? The big pairs are good candidates, but Trevor almost certainly would have reraised preflop with AA or KK, so we can discount them quite a bit. That means, if I'm beat, there's an excellent chance he has QQ.
The hands he could have that I can beat are TT, 88, 77, 66, 55, and AK, AQ. I doubt he'd be making such a bold move with a pair lower than 9, he's just too weak-tight for that. So scratch pairs 55 thru 88. I also think he would just fold AK and AQ here - he doesn't have nearly enough game to try a move like this with those hands. So if I have him beat, I'm pretty sure he has TT.
So really, the only hands I can reasonably put him on are QQ and TT. (Or the other two jacks, but that's statistically crazy and basically doesn't matter anyway.)
Looking at the pot-odds, there was something like 6100 in there, and I had to call another 3400 or so, giving me pot odds of about 1.8 to 1. So if will win 37% of the time against his range, then I have a definite call from a math standpoint. Since I really had him pinned down to a range of [TT, QQ] I would win 50%. From a math standpoint, it's an easy call.
From a holy-shit-I-might-bust-out-of-the-WSOP standpoint, it was quite a bit tougher.
Given that analysis, I boiled my thinking down to two things. First, would he have reraised pre-flop with QQ? I thought he probably would have, but I couldn't be certain. Second, could I live with myself if either a) I fold here and he shows me TT or b) I call and he shows me QQ. I determined that the latter was preferable. And the final straw was this: Trevor's all-in raise looks like a desperate overbet that wants to end the hand. That's way more indicative of TT than of QQ. So, I took a deep breath, gritted my teeth, and pushed all my chips into the middle, saying I call. It was an out-of-body experience.
He had TT. And he didn't hit on the turn or river.
I had to take a break for about 4 hands and go walk around after that hand. The tension and concentration had literally exhaugsted me. My hands weren't shaking during the decision period, but afterwards they were going like crazy. I stacked my chips (up over 10k again), got up, and took a walk over to the feature table to watch Hellmuth for a few minutes. It really took me almost the rest of the level to calm down.
But right before break, I went a huge heater. I started getting great hands, raising, hitting flops, and scoring chips. With 5 minutes to go in the level, I busted Angry Duke on a great hand. I had about 14k and he had about 6k. I opened under the gun with AcKc and he reraised me. I thought about putting him in right there, but decided to call. The flop came something like 9 4 2 with two clubs. I decided that I wanted to get all his chips in the middle on the flop, and it was simply a decision of whether that was more easily accomplished via a check-raise or a bet, get raised, shove sequence. The former is harder because the check-raise is an overbet, but the latter is dangerous because if he just calls you might end up in trouble if the turn bricks.
But Angry Duke had made some rather strange all-in overbets already today, and I felt like he didn't like me and was itching to take down a pot against me. So I bet, he complied not just by raising, but by shoving in for a huge overbet. Thank you, Angry Duke. I called, and he flipped up AhKd. Sweeeeet! That meant I could win with a club, but worst-case scenario we would split. The turn was a blank, but the river was the beautiful 5 of clubs, sending Angry Duke to the rail. He gave me a nice "how could you call that / nice catch" parting shot, but I just laughed.
I was up to about 20.5k, and I chipped up to just over 21k by the break. I went down to the Pokerstars suite, got some food (they had an Indian buffet spread, very nice) and called Sarah to report on the happenings.
A few other notes from Level 2:
We got filmed by ESPN for two hands, neither of which I was involved in, unless you count having a boom mike 18 inches above my head to catch my speech. One hand was unspectacular, but the other was a doozy. Ray raised in early position, and UB chick reraised. Ray then made a huge overbet all-in, and UB chick insta-called. She had Ray covered by a good amount. Bear in mind, ESPN is filming. Ray flips over AA, and UB chick flips over JJ. Flop comes J 5 2! Immediately, I hear the ESPN producer scream to the cameraman get the shot of the guy who had Aces! as Ray looks on in horror, standing behind his seat. No help on the turn or river, and Ray flings his chip protector into the pot as he walks away in disgust, ESPN trailing him for an interview. UB chick also got interviewed. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets on ESPN as part of a "bad beats" montage. It was fantastic.
Anway, that's two bust outs, so we got some new players:
Seat 3: (Nickname: mustache). This guy was very quiet, and a decent player. He liked to play back at people by check-raising flops and such.
Seat 1: (Name: Brian). An excellent player of the conservative style. Much friendlier than Angry Duke, but you could tell instantly that he really thought about hands. One of the best stone-faces I've ever seen at a poker table. He would be in a hand and literally look like he wasn't alive, perfectly still with his head on his hands, eyes hidden by sunglasses. He will also be at my table on Tuesday (along with Tom.)
Hellmuth busted out right about this point as well. That was a scene. The PA announcer came on and a huge roar came up from the crowd. I think he was all-in with AQ vs. 77 and didn't improve. I know that he lost a lot of chips early and never really recovered. He was actually pretty gracious in defeat, as I saw him signing autographs like 10 minutes after he busted.
[Note: So I'm going to write something like a 4-post series recapping Day 1. I'm doing this partially because I know all of you want to read it, partially because I want to get it down on paper before I forget a lot of it, and partially because two of the better players from my table yesterday are going to be at my table on Tuesday, and I want to use this to rethink some of their play. So feel free to skip a lot if it doesn't interest you -mg]
Day One: Arriving at the Rio
I got up around 7am on Saturday, still not fully adjusted to west coast time. That sucks because all indications are that we are going to be playing until past 3am in the morning, based on what happened yesterday on Day 1A. Sarah and I had breakfast, and then I packed my bookbag and took the Pokerstars shuttle over to the Rio around 10am. I was wearing the Pokerstars baseball jersey and shorts, but I had heard rumors that new, non-dot.com clothing was available at the Pokerstars hospitality suite at the Rio. [In my bookbag I had: a sweatshirt, a long-sleeve t-shirt, some food, my ipod, my camera, my card protectors, a notebook and pen, some Airborne, and a water bottle.]
When I got to the Rio, it was chaos. Total chaos. I went to the Pokerstars suite, grabbed some fruit, and sat down on a couch for a while. Then I roamed the halls for about an hour, and they let us into the main event room at 11:30. I found my seat, stuffed my bag underneath it, and then I took this video. This is around 11:45am, just before we began playing:
Day One: Scouting the original table I sat down, counted out my stack, and looked around the table. Here's what I saw:
What you can see there is the 2,3,4, and 5 seat (the 1 seat is blocked by the dealer; I'm sitting in the 9 seat). My table never broke during the day. Four of us who started there made it the whole way. Six original players busted, and 4 replacements also busted. Nevertheless, you really get to know people (and their playing styles) well over the course of a day. The table was very friendly, and we spent a lot of time making jokes and laughing. Here's a summary of the original 10 at my table:
Seat 1: (Nickname: Angry Duke hat). Only guy at the table I didn't like as a person. Over-dramatic, wore sunglasses and a Duke hat pulled down over his face. Never talked, except to complain. But still, one of only two people at the table I was scared of at all. Played something like a Harrington-esque conservative style.
Seat 2: (Nickname: Party Poker woman). Busted out early. On one of the worst plays I've ever seen. More on that later.
Seat 3: (Name: Ray). Seemed experienced, but played weak-tight. Friendly guy, but had the single most annoying ritual of any poker player I've ever met, seen, or heard of: he wouldn't look at his cards until it was his turn. When it was his turn, he put a small disc on top of the cards and spun it. We would then wait until it stopped spinning, at which point he would remove it, look at the cards slowly, and fold. Utterly unreal. At one point, someone jokingly "called the clock" on him for doing this. Table burst out laughing.
Seat 4: (Nickname: Bodog ultra-tight). Tightest poker player I've ever met. Makes Danton look loose. During level 2, he played three hands, total. Nice guy. Qualified on Bodog poker.
Seat 5: (Name: Tobin). Very tight player. Not as tight as Bodog, and a bit better post-flop, but still ridiculously tight. Looks like Tam.
Seat 6: (Name: Trevor). Genuinely jovial Canadian kid. Ordered two beers during level 1. Played very weak-tight. Extremely friendly and fun to play with.
Seat 7: (Nickname: UB chick). A decent female player. Tight agressive. Very straightforward.
Seat 8: (Name: Carl Olson). Sat directly to my right the whole day until he busted with 20 minutes left in the night. Super nice-guy, and had that innocent, goofy,midwestern Scandanavian humor. For instance, he made the whole table crack-up by saying the following, and without anyone taking offense: I think I figured out how they pick the feature table. It's all about pros and chicks with huge racks. Basically, you'll always get a table of either two pros, or one pro and one rack. Now that's high comedy. Then he showed me the photographic evidence from Friday: a digital picture of the feature table, with Scotty Wynn and one chick with enormous fake boobs. Hillarious. Carl played a smart, conservative game, although he was probably a bit too weak-tight.
Seat 9: (Me). Now, I play pretty loose and agressive. But at this table it was absurd. I wasn't doing anything more than a mix between a Harrington conservative and a Harrington aggressive style, and I was by far playing the most hands at the table. And it worked very, very well. The better players at the table eventually caught on to what I was doing, but 6 of the players never adjusted their style against me. They just kept folding pre-flop, or folding on the flop. It was amazing. Absolutely amazing. Now, the one thing about playing loose-agressive is that it puts you on a roller coaster with your chips. Anyone who has played against me knows this. Up, down, up, down, and hopefully up. Today would turn out to be no different. But, to me, it's better than bleeding off your chips by not playing any hands and never giving yourself a chance to do anything. The upside to my style is that when I do have a hand, it gets paid off. Big time.
Seat 10: (Name: Tom). Probably the best player at the table. Middle-aged man with some previous WSOP experience. My respect for him grew enormously over the course of the day, as I watched him make great play after great play, and adjust very well to my constant stealing - he started re-popping me on about 30% of the time that I raised first in. Very nice guy. The crappy part is that he's sitting to my left again when play resumes on Tuesday.
[If you really want to see some of these people, go back and watch the video again, you can match them up by their descriptions.]
Overall, I thought I was one of the best players at the original table. After watching for about 12 minutes, I realized that I was going to be able to steamroll half of them, and the others I would be wary against, but aggressive. [For those of you who don't know what "weak-tight" means, I'd define it as this: plays only premium hands, calls raises with them instead of re-raising preflop, and then folds if they don't hit the flop. This style is simple to read, and it's easy to make them fold even if you have nothing. I can't tell you how many times I raised with JTs, got one out-of-position weak-tight caller. Flop was A 8 2, I bet and took it down. I must have done that same routine 40 times yesterday.] The other thing is that the ultra-tights in the 4 and 5 seat virutally never got any action with their legitimate hands. They would just take down the blinds on the rare occasions that they raised.
On the other hand, the table didn't feature a lot of truly horrible players. There wasn't much limping at all, and virtually no one was open-limping from middle or late position. In the whole 12 hours, we only played 2 or 3 pots that were 4-way or more. But man was it good to not have any pros at the table. One of the guys who was at Ivey's table for about 3 hours and then got moved to our table around 2am reported that Ivey was basically a third blind. Instead of 150/300, it was basically 150/300 with Ivey raising to 850 on 70% of the hands. And he had something ridiculous like 60k in chips.
We're playing 6 levels today, each 2 hours long. Between all levels is a 20 minute break, except after level 3 is a 1.5 hour dinner break.
They bring up Doyle Brunson to give the ceremonial "shuffle up and deal." It's the 30th anniversary of Doyle's 1st main event victory, and they have a huge cake that we can all get a piece of at the break. Brunson is truly a legend: most WSOP bracelets of all-time, the only person who has played in all 35 main events since 1970, and still a terror at the table in his 70's.
On to the poker! I start one off the button. First hand: Js4s. Folds around to me. I fold. Button (Tom) raises and takes the blinds. We're underway!
I win my first hand two hands later, raising with AJs from middle position and taking down the blinds.
I started off playing Harrington-conservative (which is a lot less conservative than most people think, and a lot less conservative than the rest of the table.) I folded 44 under the gun, I folded KQs in early position. But the table was playing so tight that I had to open up my game and start grabbing chips. I started open-raising with things like QJo from middle position, etc. I was still playing very tight if there was a limp or raise in front of me. But folded to me, i was loosening up, and I was meeting virtually zero resistance. It was great. I chipped up to about 10,500.
First confrontation. I raise to 175 with 77 in middle position. Ray calls me from the big blind. Flop A 5 5 rainbow. Ray bets out 125. I think this is weak, so I raise to 400. He folds.
I'm still playing relatively tight, but i'm the loosest at the table, and a few of the better players - Tom in the 10 seat to my left and Angry Duke in the 1 seat two to my left - start playing with me more. The rest of the original table never does. It was unreal. I get in a few confrontations with Angry Duke, culminating in this key hand:
I raise from the button with QJo. Angry Duke calls in the big blind. Flop 8 4 2 with 2 spades. Duke checks, and I bet half the pot. He calls. Turn is an offsuit 2. Check-check. River is an offsuit 6. Duke checks , and I bet the pot. He thinks for about 2 minutes, stares me down, and folds.
A few hands later, one of the most unbelievable things I ever saw at a poker table happened. Tobin raised from MP, and the Pokerstars woman called him from the button. Flop J J 9 with 2 diamonds. Tobin bet half the pot (200), woman raised to 800, Tobin raised to 3k, and the woman went all in for her full stack. Tobin thought for about 2 minutes and called with AJ. Woman then flips over 67o, for the 7-high runner straight draw. Nice hand. See you later. After she walked away and our jaws came off the floor, Tobin admitted that he thought about laying it down, fearing she had 99.
And that brings up a key insight: you really have to be able to lay down overpairs, trips, and even sets if you want to do well in a tournament this tight and this deep-stacked early on. I layed down two overpairs yesterday, and got burnt two other times when i didn't lay down but should have. It's quite simple: people tend to raise with premium hands. If you raise with JJ and get reraised, you can't dare put a third raise unless you're feeling real lucky or have a specific read. So you have to call. But then when the flop comes 7 4 2 rainbow, you're in real quandry. Even when it comes A 7 2 rainbow, you have to be able to judge when to play and when to give up. It's really concentration intensive, and nerve-racking. And as weak-tight as these players were, most of them were not stupid. I saw more great calls and great laydowns yesterday than I can imagine.
The main thing I took out of all of this was the importance of position in a deep-stack tourney. In the above example with the JJ, you really prefer to go second. If you are going to be out of position after the flop, you might as well put the third raise in pre-flop and try to end it right there. If they put the 4th raise in, you fold. The problem with calling out of position is that when you flop an overpair you're likely to have no clue what to do on the flop. And then you start telling yourself things like: he probably has Ace-King, I'll checkraise. That's a dangerous thought to get in your head.
The other thing I learned is the value of playing "small-ball." Several times in level one, I flopped an pair with an Ace and a good kicker, bet the flop, checke the turn, and then check-called on the river. It's a great way to keep the pot small with one pair. The times I got in trouble yesterday were mostly playing the middle pairs, 6's through 10's. That's a major leak in my game, and it hurt me yesterday quite a bit.
Anyway, back to the action. I picked up the red Aces about an hour into level 1. I raised to 200, and Tom re-popped it to 800. I thought for a while and made it 2400. He called. This is a tough situation. If the wrong flop comes, I have to be very careful not to overplay. But luckily the flop was a beauty: 6 6 5 rainbow. Why is that a beauty? It's simple: no one is reraising with 55 or 66 (as loose as I'm playing, that would be nuts even for me), so I must have the best hand. The real decision is whether to check or bet. If I bet, I probably take it down. If I check, I might get him thinking I have AK or a medium pair that wants to play small-ball, and maybe I'll get a check-raise. I decide Tom's too smart for that, and I don't want him to get a free card on the turn, which could be something scary like a queen. So I bet 2200 and take the pot. That gets me up to my high water mark for Level 1, which was 13,700 chips.
Meanwhile, Partypoker woman has been replaced by a young kid:
Seat 2: (Nickname: young/tight): Plays extremely tight, but isn't stupid. It really has turned the other end of the table into a murders row of tight players. I wish I was sitting where Tom or Angry Duke were, I could be stealing blinds like a bandit.
I kept mixing up my game, taking some pots, losing some pots. The key thing so far, however, was that I hand't shown down a single hand except for a pair of aces with a good kicker that won a pot. So even though Tom and Angry Duke are suspicious of how many hands I'm playing, no one is really sure what is going on.
That changes when I make my first big mistake of the tournament. UB chick raises from the button and I defend in the BB with J10s. Flop is A K 3 rainbow and I bet out half the pot, trying to take it. She calls. Turn is 4 and we go check-check. River is a 10 and I bet the pot. That's such a stupid bet, I can't describe it. As soon as it left my hand, I was so mad at myself. Think about it: I finally catch something that might be good enough to win if I just check it down, and then I make a bet that will only be called by a better hand. UB chick hems and haws but finally calls, I say "nice hand" and try to muck before I have to turn it over, but she says she wants to see it and the dealer blocked my attempt to fire it into the muck pile. It gets turned over, she has A8, and Angry Duke blurts out I knew you were full of shit when you bet the river against me half an hour ago. Damn. The secret is out.
Luckily, only about half the table was aware enough to take this inference, but my cover was blown. The good players began to adjust to me. That's fine, because ultimately the goal of the loose-aggressive style is to get some big hands and get paid off by people who think you are full of shit, but that requires to actually get the big hands. So the game was on.
The rest of the level was rather uneventful. Doyle Brunson got moved to the table next to us, so there were camera crews swarming our table at all times. I also saw Paully McGuire - who writes the popular poker blog Dr. Pauly's Tao of Poker - walking around taking pictures. I called him over to my table and we chatted for a while. He took a photo of me and put it on his blog. It's funny because my photo is in there surrounded by pictures of well known pros/celebs. Here's the photo:
A few notes: Yes, that is a 3/4 length pokerstars baseball shirt. I got it Saturday morning at the hospitality suite, and yes, I was very glad to have it. Stylish. Also note that the guy dressed in a bear suit that you can see on Dr. Pauly's website was sitting right behind me at the table in the background. He's just off camera, but I can assure you that between him and Brunson, the ESPN cameras were swarming our area all day.
Pros I spotted early in the day: Hellmuth is at the feature table, I can hear him lecturing people from my seat 30 yards away. He literally never shuts up. True to Carl's prediction, there are no other pros at the feature table, but definitely two attractive women. I also spot: Men the Master, Jesus, Ivey, Lederer, Brunson, Phil Laak, and Humberto Brenes.
The level ended and I had 12,550 chips. I felt really good and really in control of the table. The only thing I was disturbed about was that I seemed to have the two most competent players directly on my left, but otherwise I was really confident. I headed down to the Pokerstars suite to hang out, have some food, and see Sarah. I can remember thinking wow, only 5 more two-hour levels to go and wondering how the heck we were going to survive.
Next up: Level 2. I'll post it later this afternoon.
I made it through day 1, and by god it really was a test of endurance.
I'm down to 10,400 chips, which is a real shame because with 40 minutes left (2:35am PST) I had about 34,500. I completely misplayed a pair of 10's and gave away 25,000 chips when it was (retrospectively) obvious on all streets that I was beat and could have should have found a way to fold. The blinds will be 250/500 with a 50 ante when I play again. That means I'll need to double up fast.
I spent 16 hours at the Rio: 12 of them actively playing poker, 3 of them on break from playing poker, and 1 of them counting, bagging, sealing, and certifying my chips. The last two hours were grueling - people were literally falling asleep between hands.
2300 people started today, and 821 finished. I next play on Tuesday, noon PST, when the survivors from my day combine with the survivors from day 1A. We'll start with about 1600 people and play down to 700. (Days 1c and 1d will do the same thing on Wednesday).
But whatever. I'm through. And I'm basically delirious right now. I'm going to bed. I have pictures, video, and about 234234524390 hands that I can talk about. I'll make the mother of all posts tomorrow, presuming I wake up before Monday.
The good: Best sushi I ever had last night, at Little Buddha. The bad: The most expensive sushi I ever had last night. The silly: My diet for today is most likely power bars and Red Bull.
Little Buddha was amazing last night. Great atmosphere. (Picutures here). Expensive, but not outrageous, prices. We started with some coconut wrapped Tiger Shrip in a coconut basil sauce. Sarah had a Chai tea martini and I had an Asahi Dry. Sarah got some Korean BBQ Salmon, which came in this incredible sauce, and I had a sushi assortment plate. Just fantastic. After dinner, we thought about going to either the Ghostbar or Rain, but we were just too tired. SO we called it a night.
Eating at the WSOP is a whole 'nother issue. The Rio is not known for it's fabulous restaurants, and it certainly isn't known as a place that can feed 2000 poker players, all of whom want to eat during the same 15 minute break. I've packed my bookbag with power bars, power gel, water, and other treats. I don't even think I'm going to try and buy any food on the breaks. I'm hoping the Pokerstars Hospitality Suite has some decent free food, but I'm not expecting much besides fruit and soda. I think Sarah is going to try and get a table somewhere at the Rio just before the dinner break, so I can join her without having to wait on any lines, assuming I am still in the tournament still am feeling good about having the chiplead.
The good: I feel very well rested, having got 9 hours sleep. The bad: I'm still on east coast time. Woke up 6am. The silly: Yesterday, they didn't finish till 2:45am PST.
That's literally unreal. They played 6 complete 2-hour levels of poker, plus a 1.5 hour dinner break. If I survive today, I might sleep all day on Sunday. Put it this way: I may still be playing poker when you wake up tomorrow.
I start at 3pm eastern time. If I survive the day, I'll probably be done bagging up my chips by around 7am eastern time. Then I'll walk back to the Palms, write a quick blog blurb, and crash for, i don't know, about 132 hours. Oh wait, I have to see Sarah off to the airport by noon. And remember, this is the good scenario.
The good: I'm ready to go, clothing-wise. The bad: I look absurd, and just like hundreds of other PS qualifiers.. The silly: Nevada Gaming has banned d0t-com ads on clothing.
This defies belief, but I assure you it's true. Fearing the feds, Nevada opted to not allow people to wear clothing ads for pay-money poker sites at the WSOP. And they made this decision yesterday. Some poker sites had the foresight to outfit their players in .net gear (or other play money site stuff). Not pokerstars. So it was handled yesterday by people either 1)wearing their gear inside out, or 2)putting some electrical tape over the .com portion of the gear. It's so absurd as to not be believed. As Shane says, "it lends some trailer-park chic to an already dubious fashion statement." Exactly.
Sarah will update this blog a few times during the day today with my progress. Check back here periodically. There won't be anything until at least my first break (5ish, EST), but there should be regular updates after that. I'm also going to try and take digital photos and video over at the tournament. Later.
Ok. This morning, Sarah and I took about a 7 hour walk. We had breakfast at the Palms around 8am, and then we proceeded to walk to the Strip (about 1 mile) and then down the Strip all the way to Mandalay Bay (about another mile), and then back. Obviously, we punctuated this with many stops at the various amazing casinios. Bad news is our camera is still broken. Good news is that I think I fixed it just a few minutes ago, so we'll be featuring photos again soon.
We toured: Ceaser's Palace, the Bellagio, New York New York, Monte Carlo, and Mandalay Bay. Quite fun, really. They are just so much larger than life, it's amazing. Makes even the best casinos in Atlantic City look like a bunch of roach motels, both in size and niceness. We went to the Shark Reef at Mandalay Bay, which is a monster aquarium tour with nothing but predatory fish. Very fun. We also played about an hour and a half of low-limit hold'em ($2/$4) at Luxor. I felt like sitting down for a bit before tomorrow, and Sarah was interested. I lost $12. She won $40.
On the way back in the late afternoon, we stopped at the Rio to watch some of the World Series, Day 1. Holy crap, i've never seen a poker scene like that. I'll get pictures and video tomorrow, but suffice it to say that it was unreal. 200+ tables playing, spectators 3 deep throughout the room, ESPN camera units everywhere, and, oh yeah, Scotty Wynn at the feature table. Drinking a Corona. I'm almost fell over when I saw that. Here's a picture from anothe blog:
That's "main street 2" in the tournament room, where you can walk as a spectator and watch from. There are four such "main streets" in the room, to give you a sense of the size. The following picture, however, does more justice to what it is like in the halls and tournament trying to move:
It's really a hassle. I have no idea how I'm going to go to the bathroom during the breaks tomorrow.
And the vendors. Good lord, the vendors. Every online poker site you've ever heard of, plus about 1000 others, have a dislay booth giving out free t-shirts, decks of cards, jewelry, sunglasses, jackets, hats, flip flops, poker chips, poker chip racks, and a whole bunch of stuff that has nothing to do with poker, like potholders. I think you could probably get about 50 t-shirts in one 20 minute walk through the hallway. But really it's the free booze that is most outrageous. Many of the online poker sites have set up bars in their hospitality suites. And i don't mean makeshift tables. I mean oak bars with beer taps. It was insane.
We got back to the Palms around 3:45 and decided to go down to the pool. I wish I had fixed my camera before we did this, as it was a scene straight out of Daytona. I was floored. It was more like a giant fraternity party at an outdoor pool bar than anything else. Sarah's quote: "Thank god we didn't bring those books down here we were going to read." We had a pina colodas (ordered at the swim up bar), and lounged around in the water listening to the pumping hip-hop and observing the twenty-something mayhew. I'll get pictures tomorrow.
Tonight we're going to Little Buddha for dinner. It's a pan-asian /sushi bar place. Needless to say I'm very excited.
I'll post again before I hit the WSOP tomorrow. I'm not nervous yet.
Plane was delayed an hour and a half in Albany. Finally landed at McCarren around 6:30pm PST. Took a cab to the Palms, checked in, and got my ridiculous PokerStars gear. Here's a shot of all the gear I got (minus the bag):
And here's a picture of me in the Soccer jersey. Absurd.
Our room at the Palms is quite nice. Especially the views. Here's our view toward the south end of the Strip, and then one looking down toward the pool:
After getting settled last night, we went to the Ghostbar and then to dinner at Nine. Both were unbelievably fabulous. From my seat at Nine, I could see, at separate tables, Mike Matusow, David Williams, and a woman that I'm 80% sure was Nicole Kidman.
However, our camera is on the blink, so I don't have pictures. And that really sucks because the view of the Strip from Ghostbar's outdoor 55th floor deck is amazing.
This morning I woke up at 6am (due to the time difference), and walked over to the Rio to register for the tournament. All I can say is that it's completely out of control over there. It was 6am and there must have been 150 tables of poker going: satellites to the main event, high stakes no-limit games, and idiots playing 2-4 limit hold'em all night. Outrageous. Again, I don't have pictures (I'll try to take some today and tomorrow).
Anyhow, I'm at Table 145, Seat 9 on Saturday. We're going over to the Strip for breakfast. I will write more tonight.
Doherty and I have spent some time recently thinking about how to play the nuts. Specifically, we've been talking about situations where making huge overbets with the nuts are profitable plays. Before we get into that, a little background:
Usually, when someone moves all-in by significantly overbetting the pot, particularly with cards still to come in a heads-up pot, that's a sign of weakness in anything but an all-out beginners game. Not total weakness, but certainly much less strength than the size of the bet tends to indicate.
Example: You have AdKs, late position. One player limps up front and you make a standard raise of about 4 times the big blind. Everyone folds back to the limper, who calls. The flop comes:
Kc 7c 2d
Your opponent checks to you, and you bet 3/4 of the pot. He comes over the top all-in for about 4 times the size of the current pot. What is his most likely hand?
It almost has to be the nut flush draw, AcXc. He's hoping to win the pot right here, but is willing to fall back on what may be as 12 outs (9 clubs and 3 Aces). If he has the Ac2c, all the more so.
Why is this the case? Well, it's actually quite simple. If he truly had a great hand - say, a set of 7's - why on earth is he betting so much? Shouldn't he either A) just flat call your bet, or B) make a check-raise of about 2/3 of the pot, giving you some irrisistable 3-to-1 odds if you have AK, as you do, or C) bet out on the flop instead of checkraising, to limit your interpretation of his strength.
Big overbets on the flop just scream "I have a pretty darn good draw" to intermediate players and better. A standard raise - with the threat of a big bet on the turn - is much scarier than someone racing to get 4 times the pot in on the flop.
Example 2: You have JJ under the gun and make a standard raise to 4 times the big blind. You get one call from the small blind. The flop comes:
7s 6h 4h
He checks, and you bet 4/5 of the pot. He calls. The turn is the scary 5d. He checks and you check. The river is the 10c, making the board:
7s 6h 4h 5d 10c
The small blind goes all-in for twice the pot. What do you do?
It's a tough situation, since he might have been looking to check-raise the turn with a straight, but i doubt it. This is a massive overbet for someone who, in theory, is trying to get paid off. Especially when we have shown little aggression since the flop, which could have been a standard continuation bet. It's much more likely that the small blind is bluff here, maybe with the nut flush draw that didn't hit. It's unlikely he has a medium strength hand, because he'd probably like to just show those down as cheap as possible. So he likely either has the straight or has next to nothing. If you have enough chips that this won't devastate you to call, I vote for a call.
Anyway, Doherty and I have been discussing situations where this relatively common line of reasoning can be turned against intermediate or better players. A situation came up the other night in New Haven that I thought illustrated it well:
Blinds were 50/100 and Jason came in for a raise to 300, which I called from late position, holding 10h9h (Leave aside the questionable nature of that call). The flop came:
Ah 7h 3h
Jason bet 450 into the 750 pot. I had 2400 behind, and he had me covered. I saw three options:
1) just calling, and then either bettin the pot or raising all-in on the turn, unless a heart hit.
2) raising to about 1200, hoping Jason would reraise me all in with an AK type hand.
3) shoving right in on the flop.
I picked #2, and Jay mucked his cards instantly, even claiming he had an Ace. This is a situation where I think I would have done a lot better if I shove.
Think about the math: The difference between a shove and a standard raise is only 2:1 in terms of size. So if he'll call a shove even half as often as a normal raise, I make out good.
And the shove screams: "I'm on a big heart draw, but I really want you to go away right now so I can just have this pot."
Don't know if my logic is good here, but it seems to me that overbetting with the nuts (or close to the nuts) might be the highest EV play here.
Anyway, that's one of things I've been thinking about lately: how to use big bets to get more out of lock hands.
I enjoy reading poker books. So of course I'm brining a few along for the plane flight and the hotel room. I'll tell you which ones at the end of the post, but first a brief review of my favorite poker books.
Poker books generally come in four flavors: strategy books, non-fiction books about poker culture, biographies, and fiction books. Here are my thoughts on each genre:
First off, good lord: Yale's Alex Jacob just made another televised final table at the WSOP, this time in the $2,500 pot-limit Hold'em. And unlike two weeks ago, this time he's got the chip-lead. Once upon a time,when I lived in New haven and was an occasional player at the now-legendary Trumbull Poker Club, I thought Al was simply the best player I'd ever played against. Now I'm starting to believe he's actually what we all hoped: a truly elite, world-class player. Here's to hoping his TV exposure later this summer launches him to the poker superstardom he definitely desrves.
Congrats Al, now finish it off this afternoon, please!
UPDATE: Al finished 5th, for about 77k. He's now currently #11 in the 2006 Player of the Year rankings, having cashed 3 times at the WSOP in addition to his 2nd at the Foxwoods WPT tourney.
Second, starting day: I just got my starting day from the WSOP people: Saturday, July 29th, noon PST. That's what I requested. I was happy to get it, because it allowed Sarah and I to start making some dinner reservations for next weekend. Having sold off about 30% of myself in the tournament, SJC and I are primed to enjoy a few of the finer Vegas restaurants. We're getting in on Thurday the 27th around 5pm. We haven't made plans for Thursday yet, but Friday night we have a reservation at the N9NE steakhouse, which is supposed to be one of the best cuts of beef in town. We're also hoping to hit one of the critically-acclaimed Sushi joints, probably Nobu.
Third, practice tourneys: As I wrote a few days ago, I've played a bunch of practice $20 "deep stack" tourneys on Pokerstars. I was going to write in depth about them, but a much more important development occured. A few of my friends persuaded me to play a live practice tournament at Foxwoods this week, mostly so that I could dry run a bunch of things - clothing, table style, etc. - and so I could get in the habit of taking a live tournament more seriously. Most of the time that I'm playing live tourneys, I'm joking around with people at the MB poker club.
Anyway, I somehow managed to not only dry run all kinds of stuff, but I finished second in the tournament, taking $2008 after beating out all but 1 of 150 some-odd people. As is always the case with poker tournaments, it was a combination of playing well, winning a few coinflips, making no dumb errors, never getting badly sucked-out on, and getting that one miracle card when you need it. Of course, it was also a reminder to myself of how many donkeys are playing $80 buy-in tournaments at Foxwoods at noon on a weekday.
Anyway, some key thoughts: First off, this tournament didn't allow for a whole lot of early "play." You started with 2000 chips, blinds 25/50, going up steady every 20 minutes. That's fast. So the key skills were largely: patience, opponent analysis, and knowing when to try to steal. It took me until we were down to 4 tables to ever have anything more than an average stack, but at that point so many people went into their shell waiting to try and get to the final table that it was ridiculous. Example: blinds 300/600, ante 100. That's 1800 in the pot to start. I would raise in middle or late position on a steal to something like 1500 and routinely take it down. That's absurd. The big blind is getting 3300 to 900 (3.6 to 1) on a call there. I had started by stealing at 4x the big blind, but it kept working so well that i slowly ratcheted down to 2.5x, and i was amazed at the results. When we got down to 11 handed, that was the most absurd. I was literally the only person at my 5-handed table who wasn't trying to sneak into the final table. At one point I raised 7 hands in a row and won each pot without a fight. By the time the final table started, I had the chip lead, and 4 of the people at the final table were on life-support, with less than 3 big blinds.
At the final table, I played ok. The blinds were quite high, so 5 people were out before you could spit. I then lost my chiplead after misplaying a steal: I made a standard steal-raise of 3.5x the big blind, and the blig blind shoved in for his remaining chips, offering me 2.8 to 1 on a call, which basically means I have to call, even holding my piddling Td8h. It was a perfectly fine call odds-wise (he had AdJc), but after i lost the pot, i was stripped of my ability to bully the table, which really hurt. We got to 4-handed, and I lost a ton of chips when AT made two pair on the flop against my AQ, the money going in largely pre-flop. That hurt. I survived down to 3 handed, and then watched an all-time idiotic move by both my opponents. Here's the situation: One guy has like 45% of the chips, another guy maybe 40%, and I have like 15%, something like enough chips to play 4 more hands before I'm blinded off. The payouts are: $3900 for 1st, $2008 for second, and $950 for third. I'm just looking for a hand to push with, and then all of a sudden, the other two guys get in a huge raising war pre-flop, and all their money goes in. I am literally stunned when one of them turns over AJ and the other AT. I mean, holy fucking crap, are you kidding me?!?!? Both of you just made a $1000 error, for sure. The guy with AT had more chips, and he caught a 10 on the river, busting the other guy. I would have started laughing, if i wasn't in such shock. Thanks for the grand, moron. I busted 2 hands later, and it was over. Amazing.
Luckbox hand of the tourney: about 20 people left, I'm in middle position with JJ. I raise and get one caller who has position on me. Flop 9 7 2. I bet half the pot, he calls. I spike a J on the turn and check-raise all-in. He calls with a set of 7's.
Well-played - maybe - hand of the tourney: I'm about 3rd in chips with 12 people left. Aggresive chipleader is on my left. I pick up AA, make a standard raise, he calls. Flop J 7 3 rainbow. I check. He bets 2/3 of the pot. I don't sense that he has a set. In fact, I'm pretty sure he would have re-raised pre-flop with almost any pair. I've got about 4 times the size of the pot behind, so I just call, because I think he's going to fold both overcards and a weak jack if I shove. He's actually looking more like 66 or 88 now in my mind (and if he has slowplayed QQ or KK, all the money is going in no matter what). And I don't mind giving a cheap card to someone who's only got two outs if he calls with a pair. I plan to make an overbet shove on any turn. Turn is perfect, pairing the 3, and I think for about 30 seconds and then shove. He grumbles and calls with QJ. I hit one of my 42 outs on the river, and more than double up (because of the antes). He says he would have layed it down if I shoved on the flop, but i don't know.
Someone asked me a fair, if blunt, question yesterday: Are you any good at Texas Hold'em?
I guess the simple answer is, well, kinda. I've thought about the game quite a bit, read about it quite a bit, and played it quite a bit. I've actually worked pretty hard to make myself better at it. I've been playing poker for over 15 years. And i've got a pinch of talent.
None of that, of course, makes one necessarily good at poker.
Honestly, when you get right down to it, no-limit Texas Hold'em is just not my best game. My poker skills are much better suited to limit 7-card Stud. I have to concentrate very hard at the table to play my best NLHE, but I can run over many stud tables even if i'm laughing it up and goofing around. That's totally counter-intuitive, since Stud requires infinitely more information collection and processing. But it's how it is for me. I just "get" Stud. And I always have. The memorizing of the cards comes easy to me, and the counter-intuitive aspects of the game have always seemed, well, not really counter-intuitive to me.
That said, I'm no Stud superstar. But I can crush the $10-$20 game at Turning Stone, and I feel like I could be very, very good at it if that was my goal in life. Not so with Hold'em, and definitely not so with no-limit Hold'em. I just don't have the talent, intuition, or (in no-limit) the raw courage required to be truly great at that game. And I never will.
A lot of people think there isn't much different in terms of skills required for the two games, but my experience indicates otherwise. Now, if you don't have a basic understanding of the mathematics, statistics, and game theory that underpins either game, you'll never be very good at either game. And lots of people fall into that category. But once you are over that hurdle, the application of that theory is totally different for each game. Principally, this falls along a few lines:
1) Limit vs. No-limit: In some ways, this is the bigger hurdle for me. I just don't have the balls to be good at no-limit games. And it's not the absolute value of the money - i don't play in games that are out of my comfort (or bankroll) zone. In fact, a good chunk of my NLHE experience is just the opposite, fixed-value tournaments. For me, it's the "pulling the trigger" aspect of it. I don't have a problem sizing value bets (although I'm no genius), but I never quite have the confidence in my reads to shove on the turn, or to overbet the pot with a river bluff. I just don't. Of course, part of this is because...
2) Reading hands: I can't read hands in Hold'em with near the accuracy that I can read them in Stud, at least in comparison to most people. It's easier to read hands in Hold'em, but I'm just average at it. It's harder in stud, but for some reason, I can usually piece together the betting and exposed cards to pretty well narrow stuff down in stud. In Hold'em, I'm often very surprised at what gets turned over. I'm pretty sure it's an issue of...
3)Information processing: my years and years of card-playing as a kid (whist, skat, bridge, pitch, etc.) made me a hound for memorizing the exposed cards. That's a key stud skill, and it's something a lot of players don't bother doing. Of course, in Hold'em there's nothing to remember.
4) Experience: I have a lot more at Stud, which is rare among poker players these days, particular players in their 20's. I don't think a lot of players appreciate how complex Stud is compared to Hold'em, particularly in terms of starting hands. The "tricks" of Stud are not as obvious or easy to read in a book; for instance, in a multi-way pot, raising with the 2nd best hand is often the correct play, oddly enough. Unlike hold'em, there is a lot more value in knocking people out of pots with double-bets. Basically, to be an intermediate Stud player is to have a massive advantage over an advanced beginner. To be an intermediate Hold'em player entails very little advantage in the current climate.
5) Game dynamics these days: It's also the case that mostly old people play stud, and they tend to play very passively. Hold'em seems to be dominated by aggressive players, so even poor players are difficult to manipulate.
What does this all mean? Well, for one, it means I don't have a ton of confidence going into the WSOP. But secondly, it means I've been trying to beef up my game a bit over the last few weeks. I've been re-reading the 3 volue Harrington on Hold'em and working through the problems in there, and I've played a few of Pokerstars.com $20 "deep stacks" tournaments for practice manipulating a 200 big blind stack effectively. And I think I'm making progress.
I'll post tomorrow on some hands I played recently in a deep stack tourney, so you can see how my thinking is progressing and where I'm still stuck.
1) don't play poker or only casually play, but
2) do watch poker on TV
have become obsessed with asking me the following question:
"What is your goal for the tournament? What place are you hoping to finish?"
Well then. Honestly, I not sure if I know how to answer that question, and I'm not sure if non-poker players would understand the answer anyways. But here goes:
...for Yale's Alex Jacob. I no longer feel bad at all about constantly getting smoked by him at the poker table. He's the real deal. Good luck, Al, on getting your first bracelet.
So I got my hotel accomadations from Pokerstars today. Previously, they had said I would be staying at the Monte Carlo, but now apparently they've put me at The Palms. That's fine by me. It seems like a nice property with plenty of excitement - good restaurants, cool clubs, and what appears to be a nice outdoor pool area. Best of all, the Palms is right across the street from the Rio, so I'll be able to walk to the tourney.
Ok. First the serious stuff: apparently the "Pokerstars hospitality suite" at the Rio has free booze for Pokerstars qualifiers. That's a pretty scary thought, considering like 80% of online qualifiers must be twenty-something single men. Red alert: sausage-fest! Still, I'm sure I'll stop by at least once, although I assume I'll get either laughed at, stared at in disbelief, or kicked out if I ask for "CL Smooth, no glass."
Anyway, Doherty and I got into a short discussion of hand #131 from the satellitte I won, and some interesting things came up. Here's the hand:
So one thing that's interesting about the WSOP main event this year is that even if you do really well, you'll only be playing poker for 2 out of the first 7 days. There are 4 flights for day 1 (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday), 2 flights for day two (Tuesday, Wednesday), and then Thursday is a day off. That's nice because I'll get to enjoy Vegas even if I don't bust early.
It also creates the problem of picking which day you want to start.
Someone asked me if I was ever in danger of busting out of the sattelite. If by "danger" we mean "all-in against someone with more chips," then it was true exactly twice. (This doesn't count the time where I hit that miracle 4, butin that case I was dead certain he wasn't holding 2-6, so I wasn't in danger of anything besides a split when the money went in). One time was the hand I doubled up on with K6 (detailed in the "How I won the seat" post).
Here's the other time my tourney was actually on the line, with my comments in between:
Ok. So here's how I won my seat. (This is - obviously - an abridged version of a 4 hour tourney. However, if you really want the whole hand history, I can email it to you.)
