Day One recap, Part II

[Note: So I'm writing something like a 4-post series recapping Day 1. This is part II. Part I can be found here. I'm doing this partially because I know all of you want to read it, partially because I want to get it down on paper before I forget a lot of it, and partially because two of the better players from my table yesterday are going to be at my table on Tuesday, and I want to use this to rethink some of their play. So feel free to skip a lot if it doesn't interest you -mg]

Level 2, blinds 50/100, starting stack size: 12,550 chips.

I started off on Level 2 right where I left off during Level 1, stealing like crazy because no one wanted to contest any pots. I'd say 90% of pots on Day 1 didn't make it to showdown, and I bet 70% didn't make it to a flop. Ripe pickings for people willing to steal. And the gap was huge: if you just raised when it folded to you, the tight players weren't going to play back without pairs or big Aces. So it was easy. I quickly chipped up to about 14.5k, and I was feeling great.

Then, disaster struck. First it was bad luck, and then it was a terrible play by me.

Hand #1: Ray raised in early position to 300. Folded to me on the button, and I called with 77. Flop was beautiful J 7 3 rainbow. Ray came out firing for 650. I thought for about 40 seconds and raised to 1500, trying to price him in. Amazingly, he came over the top all-in for 3500 more. Since I had him well covered, there wasn't any debate. If he had JJ so be it. I insta-called and he turned over QQ, leaving him with two outs for an 11k pot. Turn was a queen. Ugggh. Really devastating. Thank god I had him outchipped. That knocked me down to around 8k.

Hand #2: This came up maybe 15 minutes later. It set a pattern for the day in which I would play medium pairs (6s through 10s) very poorly. I had TT early position, raised, and got called by Angry Duke. Flop was something like 8 7 3 and I bet, he called. Turn was 4 and it went check-check. I have no idea why i didn't bet it. So stupid. River was an Ace, and I check-called a bet that was 2/3 the size of the pot. He had AK. And I could have easily shut him out on the turn. It was just dumb.

This put me down to about 6k. I then misplayed 88 badly. It was exactly like hand #2 above, only worse. Against Ray, on a board of 6 7 2 9 after the turn, I checked with my 88 (?!?!?) after having bet the flop and gotten called. River was a king, and I check-called a bet and he showed me KQ. Ughhh. What a brain-fart on the turn. Outrageously bad play.

I was down to 3400 chips, my low point of the day, and I was miserable. I had everything going for me: I had a great table, I had been playing well, and I just made some stupid errors. Then came what I think was the key hand of the day, and perhaps the most memorable tournament hand I will ever play in my life:

I've chipped up to about 4400 via steals and legit uncalled raises. I then pick up JJ in early position. I raise to 325, and both Tobin and Trevor call. This is remarkable. These guys are really tight. I put them both on medium pairs or AK. Flop comes 944 rainbow. I bet 800, Tobin folds, and Trevor puts me in for my remaining chips, about 3100. I call for time, and I literally take about 4 minutes thinking through the decision.

It's odd when you're at the WSOP and you have a potential call for all your chips. I've never experienced that level of tension playing poker. It was awful. First thing I did was look down at a litte note card I had behind my chips. It was a quote from Harrington's book: When you are faced with a big decision, you owe it to yourself to at least take the time to think the whole thing through. So I did. Here's what I thought:

Ok. Trevor is a straightforward, tight player. The hands he could have that beat me are: AA, KK, QQ, 99, 44, 94, and any random 4. We can eliminate random 4, because Trevor is way too tight to be calling pre-flop raises with A4s, 54s, etc. Same goes for 94. No way he has quad fours, he probably wouldn't have called pre-flop, and he definitely would have slowplayed the flop to trap me. Ditto with nines-full: why would he make such a huge raise on the flop with the nut full house? Wouldn't he try to trap me by just calling? The big pairs are good candidates, but Trevor almost certainly would have reraised preflop with AA or KK, so we can discount them quite a bit. That means, if I'm beat, there's an excellent chance he has QQ.

The hands he could have that I can beat are TT, 88, 77, 66, 55, and AK, AQ. I doubt he'd be making such a bold move with a pair lower than 9, he's just too weak-tight for that. So scratch pairs 55 thru 88. I also think he would just fold AK and AQ here - he doesn't have nearly enough game to try a move like this with those hands. So if I have him beat, I'm pretty sure he has TT.

So really, the only hands I can reasonably put him on are QQ and TT. (Or the other two jacks, but that's statistically crazy and basically doesn't matter anyway.)

Looking at the pot-odds, there was something like 6100 in there, and I had to call another 3400 or so, giving me pot odds of about 1.8 to 1. So if will win 37% of the time against his range, then I have a definite call from a math standpoint. Since I really had him pinned down to a range of [TT, QQ] I would win 50%. From a math standpoint, it's an easy call.

From a holy-shit-I-might-bust-out-of-the-WSOP standpoint, it was quite a bit tougher.

Given that analysis, I boiled my thinking down to two things. First, would he have reraised pre-flop with QQ? I thought he probably would have, but I couldn't be certain. Second, could I live with myself if either a) I fold here and he shows me TT or b) I call and he shows me QQ. I determined that the latter was preferable. And the final straw was this: Trevor's all-in raise looks like a desperate overbet that wants to end the hand. That's way more indicative of TT than of QQ. So, I took a deep breath, gritted my teeth, and pushed all my chips into the middle, saying I call. It was an out-of-body experience.

He had TT. And he didn't hit on the turn or river.

I had to take a break for about 4 hands and go walk around after that hand. The tension and concentration had literally exhaugsted me. My hands weren't shaking during the decision period, but afterwards they were going like crazy. I stacked my chips (up over 10k again), got up, and took a walk over to the feature table to watch Hellmuth for a few minutes. It really took me almost the rest of the level to calm down.

But right before break, I went a huge heater. I started getting great hands, raising, hitting flops, and scoring chips. With 5 minutes to go in the level, I busted Angry Duke on a great hand. I had about 14k and he had about 6k. I opened under the gun with AcKc and he reraised me. I thought about putting him in right there, but decided to call. The flop came something like 9 4 2 with two clubs. I decided that I wanted to get all his chips in the middle on the flop, and it was simply a decision of whether that was more easily accomplished via a check-raise or a bet, get raised, shove sequence. The former is harder because the check-raise is an overbet, but the latter is dangerous because if he just calls you might end up in trouble if the turn bricks.

But Angry Duke had made some rather strange all-in overbets already today, and I felt like he didn't like me and was itching to take down a pot against me. So I bet, he complied not just by raising, but by shoving in for a huge overbet. Thank you, Angry Duke. I called, and he flipped up AhKd. Sweeeeet! That meant I could win with a club, but worst-case scenario we would split. The turn was a blank, but the river was the beautiful 5 of clubs, sending Angry Duke to the rail. He gave me a nice "how could you call that / nice catch" parting shot, but I just laughed.

I was up to about 20.5k, and I chipped up to just over 21k by the break. I went down to the Pokerstars suite, got some food (they had an Indian buffet spread, very nice) and called Sarah to report on the happenings.

A few other notes from Level 2:

We got filmed by ESPN for two hands, neither of which I was involved in, unless you count having a boom mike 18 inches above my head to catch my speech. One hand was unspectacular, but the other was a doozy. Ray raised in early position, and UB chick reraised. Ray then made a huge overbet all-in, and UB chick insta-called. She had Ray covered by a good amount. Bear in mind, ESPN is filming. Ray flips over AA, and UB chick flips over JJ. Flop comes J 5 2! Immediately, I hear the ESPN producer scream to the cameraman get the shot of the guy who had Aces! as Ray looks on in horror, standing behind his seat. No help on the turn or river, and Ray flings his chip protector into the pot as he walks away in disgust, ESPN trailing him for an interview. UB chick also got interviewed. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets on ESPN as part of a "bad beats" montage. It was fantastic.

Anway, that's two bust outs, so we got some new players:

Seat 3: (Nickname: mustache). This guy was very quiet, and a decent player. He liked to play back at people by check-raising flops and such.

Seat 1: (Name: Brian). An excellent player of the conservative style. Much friendlier than Angry Duke, but you could tell instantly that he really thought about hands. One of the best stone-faces I've ever seen at a poker table. He would be in a hand and literally look like he wasn't alive, perfectly still with his head on his hands, eyes hidden by sunglasses. He will also be at my table on Tuesday (along with Tom.)

Hellmuth busted out right about this point as well. That was a scene. The PA announcer came on and a huge roar came up from the crowd. I think he was all-in with AQ vs. 77 and didn't improve. I know that he lost a lot of chips early and never really recovered. He was actually pretty gracious in defeat, as I saw him signing autographs like 10 minutes after he busted.

Next up: Level 3 and 4.